Europe

EUREXIT

I believe Brexit was good in that it shook up the bureaucratic EU and is forcing Brussels to reexamine their entire wonky structure. I believe a solution could be found to accommodate the UK, either back in the EU or with access to the single market. Now that Johnson has been ambushed by his compatriot, Gove, Theresa May is a good bet to assume the post of PM. Geopolitically it might be better if the UK were to remain outside the EU with trade access thereby removing the UK, the US Trojan Horse, and reducing US political influence in the EU.

How they will arrive at a compromise is the big question and that will be interesting to follow. It could be that Scotland is the key. The Scots PM, Sturgeon, was rebuffed yesterday by the EU in her bid to negotiate a separate arrangement for Scotland but she has other options. If Scotland refuses to give “legislative consent”, effectively a veto, to Brexit it could scarper Brexit. However, the British parliament, in turn, could veto the Scottish veto. And, if so, Scotland would call another independence referendum, something the UK definitely does not want, so everyone seems to be caught up in a win, lose situation. The simplest solution would be for Parliament not to approve the referendum ( the referendum not being legally binding) but risk being accused of being undemocratic and incurring the wrath of the Leave voters. That would take a lot of political courage!

Who blinks, or does the UK never invoke Article 50?  The EU cannot force the UK to invoke Article 50 and I think the UK should not do so. The longer the UK delays invoking Article 50 the more pressure it puts on the EU to back off from its position of not permitting negotiations before invoking the Article. If a compromise could be found on free movement of EU citizens in the UK then the UK could join EFTA with trade access to the EU and, that for me, would be the best solution. 

If the UK does not invoke Article 50, the EU will be furious fearing the continued uncertainty would stoke the fires of rebellion in other countries and be forced into a compromise. The EU eventually may have to face the fact that a political union is not feasible and content themselves with a European Trade Union, as with  EFTA, something they should have done at the outset. I see too that the Italian anti-establishment party, Five Star, having recently won the Rome mayor election is agitating for a referendum to withdraw from the Eurozone. And this is just the beginning – Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and, hopefully, others.

So, fascinating political theatre, a Machiavellian/Shakespearean drama, and I don’t expect a quick solution but I will be following it! I find it much more interesting than the sordid US electoral contest. 

Baoluo

Categories:Europe, Geopolitics, UK

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