Geopolitics

A Weekend Summary of Unresolved Global Issues

Amongst the many global issues still pending resolution here are a few to consider

The Ukraine/Russia

I think the West may be coming to their senses about the Ukraine. The EU and US are now demanding domestic reform and adherence to Minsk II before providing more funds to prop up the wonky regime. Russia certainly does not want the entire Ukraine, they merely want assurance that it does not become a haven for US and NATO troops, nor do I. Nor do I support sanctions against Russia that will harm its economy. On the contrary, I favour a strong, revitalised Russia, allied with China, that can act once again as a counterbalance to the US in global affairs.

ISIS

As for ISIS and terrorism, as opposed to the rosy Western forecasts, I don’t think the setbacks ISIS is suffering in Syria and Iraq will reduce terrorism in Europe or elsewhere. The number of European ISIS recruits presently in Syria is estimated at 5000, and the fear now is that with ISIS losing ground in Syria and Iraq, they will return to Europe to carry on their crusade where they have much softer, easier targets and can create chaos with fewer casualties. In Brussels they killed 31 and wounded 300 while losing two of their own; in Paris 130 were killed and 350 wounded while taking three or four losses. Too, in Europe they will not be subjected to air attacks and, with open borders, they can move wherever they like with impunity while melding with local muslim communities. In addition to the returnees, there are those who have EU citizenry and residence, such as the Belgium brother bombers, both born in Belgium, not migrants. 

In that regard Ash Carter, the US defence secretary, touts the killing of an ISIS commander as evidence of weakening ISIS . Americans seem to think that by killing the “ISIS cabinet” as he put it, and doing body counts, as they did in Vietnam and lost, they are winning. Al Qaeda and ISIS are like Salamanders and Starfish that regenerate amputated body parts so someone will replace the commander. Even if ISIS is defeated in Syria, they are diffused and already in other redoubts in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Plenty of places to regroup and continue mischief.

The US Electoral Circus

On the US home front, yes, the circus continues, a sad commentary on US democracy. The GOP mud fight has now degenerated into slinging insults at wives. What bothers me is not just the state of the GOP, but rather the several million Americans who support Trump and Cruz, as evidenced by the record GOP primary turnouts and the number of independents who have voted with them. While one gloats over the disintegration of  the dissolute Republican party, one should reflect on the fact that the US then would effectively have a one party system, something that is contrary to the principles of a democratic government, not unlike many autocratic governments.

Be careful what you wish for….

Baoluo

Categories:Geopolitics

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