Terrorism

Is there a Syrian Solution?

 

There are many solutions proposed and all of them involve Assad and ISIS. The West: Remove Assad and bomb ISIS; Syrian Opposition: whoever they are: Remove Assad; Turkey: Remove Assad and the Kurds; Russia: Keep Assad subject to elections and bomb ISIS; Iran and Iraq: keep Assad and destroy ISIS; ISIS: Remove Assad and make what was Syria part of their Caliphate; Kurds: fight anyone to achieve regional autonomy.

So, for the sake of argument, let us remove Assad and see where that leaves Syria.

First questions: what do we do with the Alawites, an offshoot of the Shia strongly supported militarily and financed by Iran and Iraq. If Assad goes, will the Alawites docilely accept this and accept Sunni rule? Will the Sunni nations and the so-called opposition fighters, sworn enemies of the Shia, allow the Alawites to live peacefully?

Second question: how will Syria as we knew it be ruled? Will there even be a single nation called Syria? There are several opposition groups fighting in Syria, amongst whom are Al-Qaeda, and numerous other terrorist designated groups who will want to rule Syria or, at the very least, have a piece of the pie to be divided. This is particularly true for ISIS that will settle only for absolute rule over the territory.

Have we heard how the various contending parties propose to deal with this thorny issue? Answer: No, with the exception of ISIS. As usual the US and its allies do not look beyond the immediate issues, in this case, ISIS and Assad, much like Iraq where no thought was given to post-Saddam.

My partial solution for the region is this: with the divide between the US and Iraq widening and Iraq and Iran growing closer it seems inevitable that Iraq will eventually become an autonomous or semi-autonomous region of Iran. Both being Shia nations, it would make a lot more sense than the attempts to make Iraq a single nation of disparate parts, Sunni, Shia and Kurd.

As matters stand the region will likely be faced with a Forever War unless the Sykes-Picot agreement responsible for so much of today’s turmoil is trashed

Baoluo

 

Categories:Terrorism

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