As I wrote in my blog post of 1 August 2012, “Ongoing Arab Spring”, Libya is a ‘work in progress’. The role of the 120 independents has not been clearly defined and I still suspect that within their ranks are many Islamists. The parties aside, the recent attack on the US embassy was not a surprise. The results of the democratic elections in the Arab countries are a gloss over deep seated anti-West resentment that will continue to erupt in anti-US violence at the slightest provocation.
Yet the Western media and government lauds these elections as a signal that the Muslim world has seen the light and will now follow the lead of its Western mentors. This is wishful thinking by the Western governments, as well as an attempt to justify the intervention by NATO to overthrow Ghadaffi.
The same is true of Iraq where neither the government nor the people are beholden to the Americans. We can look forward in Iraq to more of what happened in Libya, especially if the US and/or Israel attack Iran. To expect the Muslim nations to be grateful to their Western “liberators” is the height of folly and naiveté. Anti Western sentiment was kept in check by the autocrats, now the people are free to express deep seated resentment of what they perceive as Western colonialism and exploitation.
Although the press, and to a certain extent the government in Libya, try to attribute the incident to Al-Qaeda and “small” and disaffected groups, I suspect it is simply the result of widespread anti-American feeling throughout the Muslim world. That is the one thing that brings together the Sunni and Shia, a very dangerous development for the region and the US.
Now, the usual US knee jerk reaction – send Marines, warships and drones – sure to exacerbate the situation, not calm it.
About the only positive result of the Libya attack is that it has now brought foreign policy into the US election campaign and, considering how inept Romney has been on that issue, it is probably a plus for Obama.
Now, let’s see which of the liberated countries is next and when Netanyahu makes his move on Iran…..